#8


GREEN FINANCE
RESEARCH
ADVANCES


IN PARIS AND ONLINE
December 12nd ,13th and 14th, 2023

Green Finance Research Advances 2023

The Green Finance Research Advances (GFRA) is an international research conference for academics and professionals, co-organized by Banque de France and the Institut Louis Bachelier, with the participation of the Institut de la Finance Durable and the Institute for Climate Economics-I4CE.

We invite academics, regulators and professionals to save the date for the 8th edition of the conference, which will take place in Paris and online on December 12th-14th, 2023.

The objective of this conference is to bring together academics, finance practitioners and regulators, to discuss together research issues related to the integration of climate-related, nature-related and transition-related risks into macro-economic modelling/forecasting and into the risk assessment of the financial sector.


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Programme

MORNING SESSION


9:30-9:45 Welcome words

Speaker 1: Benoit Mojon(BIS)
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Speaker 2: Xuechun Zhang (PBOC)
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9:45-11:15 Macro Track I

9:45-10:30 Using Short-Term Scenarios to Assess the Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Transition

Presenter: Annabelle de Gaye (Banque de France)
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Discussant: Benoit Mojon
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10:30-11:15 Climate-Conscious Monetary Policy (BdE and ECB)

Presenter: Anton Nakov (ECB)
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Discussant: Marco del Negro (FRBNY)
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11:15-11:30 Coffee

11:30-13:00 Finance Track I

11:30-12:15 The Shade of Green: Greenwashing in the Corporate Green Bond Markets

Presenter: Wilson Wan (HKMA)
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Discussant: Weina Zhang (PBOC)
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12:15-13:00 Credit Supply and Green Investments

Presenter: Emilia Garcia Appendini (Norges Bank)
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Discussant: Stephen Karolyi (US Treasury)
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13:00-14:00 Lunch

AFTERNOON SESSION

OFFICIAL OPENING
14:00-14:30 Welcome remarks

Emmanuelle Assouan (Banque de France)
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14:30-16:00 Macro Track II

14:30-15:15 To eat or to heat: are energy bills squeezing people?

Presenter: Luciano Lavecchia (Banca d’Italia)
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Discussant: Cristina Penasco (Banque de France)
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15:15-16:00 Estimating macro-fiscal effects of climate shocks from billions of geospatial weather

Presenter: Matthieu Bellon
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16:00-16:15 Coffee

16:15-17:45 Finance Track II

16:15-17:00 Green and Brown Returns in a Production Economy

Presenter: Thore Kockerols (ECB – European Central Bank)
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Discussant: Eric Jondeau (University of Lausanne)
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17:00-17:45 The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act

Presenter: Glenn Rudebusch (Brookings Institution)
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Discussant: Elias Albagli (Banco Central Chile)
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17:45-18:00 Concluding remarks
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MORNING SESSION

Introductory remarks by Jean-Michel Beacco, Director general of ILB
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9:00-9:45 Keynote 1

Emmanuel Hache (Professor of Economics, IFPEN) on « Clean energy transition and critical minerals »

Keynote Announcer: Peter Tankov (ENSAE, Institut Louis Bachelier)
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9:45-11:00 Contributed talks – Climate policy, disclosures and impacts (part 1)

9h45-10h10 Assessment of the sensitivity of transition matrices to carbon price with value chain effect

Speaker: Elizabeth Zuniga (EthiFinance)
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10:10-10:35 Strategic competition and donor interests: An econometric approximation to the market for the allocation of climate development aid for renewable energy projects

Speaker: Cristina Penasco (Banque de France)
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10:35-11:00 Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations

Speaker: Arnaud Goussebaile (ETH Zurich)
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Moderator: Stéphane Dees (Banque de France)

11:00-11:30 Comfort Break

11:30-12:20 Contributed talks – Climate policy, disclosures and impacts (part 2)

11:30-11:55 The Impact of Green Investors on Stock Prices

Speaker: Benoit Mojon (BIS)
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11h55-12h20 Corporate cost of debt in the low-carbon transition: The effect of climate policies on firm financing and investment through the banking channel

Speaker: Tobias Kruse (OECD Economics Department)
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Moderator: Stéphane Dees (Banque de France)

AFTERNOON SESSION


13:30-15:10 NGFS Launch event of the NGFS work on Nature-related scenarios

13h30-13h40 Intro remarks TF Nature Co-Chairs

Emmanuelle Assouan (Banque de France) / Marc Reinke (DNB)
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13:40-14:10 Presentation of the NGFS TF Nature’s work on scenarios

Romain Svartzman (Banque de France)
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14:10-15:10 Panel on “Nature scenarios: Convergence and divergence with climate scenarios”

Panelists:

  • Serafin Martinez, (Banco de Mexico)
  • Katie Kedward (UCL – Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose)
  • Alessandra Melis (TNFD)
  • Manuel Coeslier (Mirova) (TBC)

Moderator: Marc Reinke (DNB)
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15:10-15:55 Keynote 2

Nicola Ranger (University of Oxford, UK) on « The Green Scorpion: the Macro-Criticality of Nature-Related Risks for Finance »

Keynote Announcer: Jeff Althouse (Banque de France)
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15:55-16:25 Comfort Break

16:25-18h30 Contributed talks – Modelling natural capital depletion and nature-related risks (part 1)

16h25-16h50 Nature Integrated Assessment Modelling: a critical review and ways forward for scenario building

Speaker: Mathilde Salin (Banque de France)
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16:50-17:15 Stranded in the wastelands? Natural capital depletion and bank deposit reallocation

Speaker: Matias Ossandon Busch (CEMLA)
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17:15-17:40 A Closer Look at the Biodiversity Premium

Speaker: Thomas Giroux (ENSAE-CREST)
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17:40-18:05 Socioeconomic and spatially-explicit assessment of Nature-related risks: an application to South Africa

Speaker: Paul Hadji-Lazaro (AFD)
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18:05-18:30 Biodiversity Risk, Firm Performance, and Market Mispricing

Speaker: Maria Eugenia Sanin (Université Paris Saclay)
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Moderator: Romain Svartzman (Banque de France)

MORNING SESSION

8:45-10:25 Parallel session 1 – Scenarios and stress testing

8h45-9h10 Optimal business model adaptation plan for a company under a transition scenario

Speaker: Elisa Ndiaye (Ecole Polytechnique)
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9h10-9h35 From Climate Stress Testing to Climate Value-at-Risk

Speaker: Thierry Roncalli (Amundi)
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9:35-10:00 The Road to Paris: stress testing the transition towards a net-zero economy

Speaker: Chiara Lelli (ECB)
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10:00-10:25 Growth at Risk From Climate Change

Speaker: Michael Kiley (Federal Reserve Board)
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Moderator: Peter Tankov (ENSAE, Institut Louis Bachelier)

8:45-10:25 Parallel session 2 – Banks and capital regulation  (in person only)

8h45-9h10 Climate Transition Risk and the Role of Bank Capital Regulation

Speaker: Enric Martorell (Banco de Espana)

9h10-9h35 As dry as a bone: how do banks cope with droughts?

Speaker: Oskar Kowalewski (IESEG School of Management)

9:35-10:00 Do bankers want their umbrellas back when it rains? Evidence from typhoons in China

Speaker: Camelia Turcu (Université d’Orléans)

10:00-10:25 Accounting for climate transition risk in banks’ capital requirements

Speaker: Lucia Alessi (European Commission)

Moderator: Laurent Clerc (ACPR)

10:25-11:00 Comfort Break
11:00-11:45 Keynote 3

Marcin Kacperczyk (Imperial College London) on “Carbon Transition Risk and Net-Zero Portfolio”

Keynote Announcer: Jean Boissinot (Banque de France)
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11:45-12:45 Panel on “Alignment toward Net Zero and transition plans: Uses and challenges”

Moderator: Stéphane Voisin

AFTERNOON SESSION

14:15-15:55 Parallel session 1 – Green investing

14h15-14h40 Pricing Climate Linkers

Speaker: Jean-Paul Renne (Université de Lausanne)
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14:40-15:05 A framework to align sovereign bonds portfolios with net zero trajectories

Speaker: Inès Barahhou (Kepler Cheuvreux)
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15:05-15:30 Climate change mitigation scenarios for financial sector target setting and alignment assessment

Speaker: Coline Pouille (OECD)
Jolien Noels (OECD)
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15:30-15:55 Who Pays the Greenium?

Speaker: Daniel Fricke (Deutsche Bundesbank)
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Moderator: Stéphane Voisin (Institut Louis Bachelier)

14:15-15:55 Parallel session 2 – Credit risks (in person only)

14h15-14h40 Asset Stranding, Climate Credit Risk and Capital Structure Design Under Global Warming

Speaker: Franck Moraux (Université de Rennes)

14:40-15:05 Climate and sovereign risk: the Latin American experience with ENSO events

Speaker: Julien Thavard (Université de Lorraine)

15:05-15:30 Diffusion of carbon price in credit portfolio through macroeconomic factors

Speaker: Lionel Sopgoui (LPSM – Université Paris Cité)

15:30-15:55 The term structure of carbon premia

Speaker: Omar Zulaica (Bis)

Presenter: Dora Xia (BIS)

Moderator: Cristina Penasco Paton (Banque de France)

15:55-16:30 Comfort Break

16:30-17:30 Award of the Banque de France “Young Researchers in Green Finance”

Speaker: François Haas (Banque de France)
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Short presentation(s) by the Laureate(s)
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17:30 End of conference

Scientific committee

  • Thomas Allen, Co-chair of the Scientific Committee, Banque de France
  • Peter Tankov, Co-chair of the Scientific Committee, Institut Louis Bachelier
  • Jeffrey Althouse, Banque de France
  • Jean Boissinot, Banque de France
  • Laurent Clerc, ACPR
  • Stéphane Dees, Banque de France
  • Antoine Godin, Agence Française de Développement
  • Frédéric Ghersi, CIRED
  • Delphine Lautier, Université Paris-Dauphine-PSL
  • Antoine Mandel, Paris 1
  • Cristina Penasco-Paton, Banque de France
  • Romain Svartzman, Banque de France
  • Stéphane Voisin, Institut Louis Bachelier
  • Olivier-David Zerbib, ENSAE

Organising Committee

  • Sandra Daniel, Banque de France
  • Ryadh Benlahrech, Institut Louis Bachelier
  • Iona Pelletier, Banque de France